Mortality Rate Will Likely Increase Under Senate Healthcare Bill

Today (6/27/17) an article was published in the Annals of Internal Medicine by Steffie Woolhandler and David Himmelstein from New York University on the effects of health insurance on mortality (1). The article has special significance because of pending healthcare legislation in the Senate.  

The Annals article concludes that the odds of dying among the insured relative to the uninsured is 0.71 to 0.97. However, the authors acknowledge that this is a very difficult study to conduct because of the nonrandomized, observational nature of the studies and lack of a strict separation between covered and uncovered Americans. For example, many people cycle in and out of insurance diluting differences between groups.

Of course, what is needed is a randomized trial, and surprisingly, one does exist which is discussed in the Annals article (1,2). In 2008, Oregon initiated a limited expansion of its Medicaid program for about 6,000 poor, able-bodied, uninsured adults aged 19 to 64 years through a lottery to win the opportunity to apply for Medicaid and to enroll if they met eligibility requirements. Compared to uninsured adults, mortality was 13% lower in the insured. However, the trial was underpowered and the mortality differences did not reach statistical significance.

Another study mentioned was one examining the mortality rates in New York, Maine, and Arizona after expansion of Medicaid (1,3). Compared to neighboring states that did not expand Medicaid, a significant decrease in all-cause mortality in the expansion states was observed (−25.4 deaths per 100,000 population; p = 0.02; Figure 1).

Figure 1. Unadjusted mortality and rates of Medicaid coverage among nonelderly adults before and after state Medicaid expansions (1997–2007). The vertical line represents the year during which the Medicaid expansions were implemented, meaning that year 1 was the first full year after the expansions.

Figure 1 shows roughly parallel death rates before Medicaid expansion, and a gradually widening split after Medicaid expansion. From this data, the authors calculated that Medicaid expansion to 176 adults would prevent one death per year.

On Monday (6/26/17), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) concluded that the pending Senate healthcare bill, known as the Better Care Reconciliation Act, will result in 22 million fewer people having health insurance by 2026 (4,5). The bill would cut $772 billion in Medicaid spending and $408 billion in subsidies for individual enrollees. The net effect of these spending reductions is partially offset by $541 billion in tax cuts mostly to corporations and wealthier Americans. These numbers all approximate the effects under the similar House version of the bill that passed on May 4.

If Medicaid expansion prevents one death for each 176 enrolled (4), presumably dropping Medicaid for 176 Americans would result in one additional death per year. Given that the CBO estimates 22-23 million Americans will lose coverage under either bill, the potential increase in deaths is staggering. If either bill is passed, an increase in the death rate among the Medicaid population seems the likely consequence of the politics of reducing the Federal deficit and billions in tax cuts for corporations and the richest Americans.

Richard A. Robbins, MD

Editor, SWJPCC

References

1. Woolhandler S, Himmelstein DU. The relationship of health insurance and mortality: is lack of insurance deadly? Ann Int Med. June 27, 2017. Available at: http://annals.org/aim/latest (accessed 6/27/17) [CrossRef]
2. Baicker K, Taubman SL, Allen HL, Bernstein M, Gruber JH, Newhouse JP, Schneider EC, Wright BJ, Zaslavsky AM, Finkelstein AN; Oregon Health Study Group.The Oregon experiment--effects of Medicaid on clinical outcomes. N Engl J Med. 2013 May 2;368(18):1713-22. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
3. Sommers BD, Baicker K, Epstein AM. Mortality and access to care among adults after state Medicaid expansions. N Engl J Med. 2012 Sep 13;367(11):1025-34.  [CrossRef] [PubMed]
4. Congressional Budget Office. H.R. 1628, Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017. June 26, 2017. Available at: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52849 (accessed 6/26/17).
5. Frieden J. Senate GOP's ACA repeal bill would knock 22 million off insurance: CBO. MedPage Today. June 26, 2017. Available at: https://www.medpagetoday.com/PublicHealthPolicy/repeal-and-replace/66275?isalert=1&uun=g687171d5575R5764210u&xid=NL_breakingnews_2017-06-26 (accessed 6/26/17).

Cite as: Robbins RA. Mortality rate will likely increase under Senate healthcare bill. Southwest J Pulm Crit Care. 2017;14(6):318-9. doi: https://doi.org/10.13175/swjpcc084-17 PDF 

Most Drug Overdose Deaths from Nonprescription Opioids

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) is reporting in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly that the number of people dying from an opioid overdose rose 15.5% from 2014 to 2015, but the increase had little to do with prescription painkillers such as oxycodone or hydrocodone (1). Roughly 52,000 people died from drug overdoses in 2015 and of those deaths 33,091 involved an opioid. The increases in “death rates were driven by synthetic opioids other than methadone (72.2%), most likely illicitly-manufactured fentanyl, and heroin (20.6%)”. Deaths from methadone, which is usually prescribed by physicians, decreased 9.1%.

The largest increase in deaths occurred in the South and Northeast with 3% and 24% increases in deaths from synthetic opioids from 2014 to 2015. In the Midwest and West, there were more modest 17% and 9% increases during the same period. States in the Southwest with “good” to “excellent” reporting included Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico which showed 33%, 14% and 30% decreases respectively.

Earlier this year, CDC Director Tom Frieden, MD, MPH, said "The prescription overdose epidemic is doctor-driven…It can be reversed in part by doctors' actions” (2). That characterization has rung in some physicians' ears as blame for the entire opioid crisis, including deaths from heroin and illegal fentanyl. The data in the present article suggests that characterization is inaccurate and that efforts by a number of State Boards to limit physician opioid prescribing may be marginally or non-effective in reducing overdose deaths.

Richard A. Robbins, MD

Editor, SWJPCC

References

1. Rudd RA, Seth P, David F, Scholl L. Increases in drug and opioid-involved overdose deaths - United States, 2010-2015. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2016 Dec 16;65. Published on-line. [CrossRef]
2. Lowes R. CDC issues opioid guidelines for 'doctor-driven' epidemic. Medscape. March 15, 2016. Available at: http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/860452 (accessed 12/21/16).

Cite as: Robbins RA. Most drug overdose deaths from nonprescription opioids. Southwest J Pulm Crit Care. 2016;13(6):316. doi: https://doi.org/10.13175/swjpcc145-16 PDF

Patient Deaths Blamed on Long Waits at the Phoenix VA

This morning the lead article in the Arizona Republic was a report blaming as many as 40 deaths at the Phoenix VA on long waits (1). Yesterday, Rep. Jeff Miller, the chairman of the House Committee on Veterans Affairs, held a hearing titled “A Continued Assessment of Delays in VA Medical Care and Preventable Veteran Deaths.” “It appears as though there could be as many as 40 veterans whose deaths could be related to delays in care,” Miller announced to a stunned audience. The committee has spent months investigating patient-care scandals and allegations at VA facilities in Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Miami and other cities. Miller said that dozens of VA hospital patients in Phoenix may have died while awaiting medical care. He went on to say that staff investigators have evidence that the Phoenix VA Health Care System keeps two sets of records to conceal prolonged waits that patients must endure for doctor appointments and treatment. Sharon Helman, director of Phoenix VA Health Care System, said in a written statement: “We take seriously any issue that occurs in our medical center and outpatient clinics. Therefore, we have asked for an external review by the VA Office of the Inspector General [OIG] ... If the OIG finds areas that need to be improved, we will swiftly address them as our goal is to provide the best care possible to our veterans.”

VA health system workers who asked not to be named because they fear retribution, said patient access data incorrectly show vets are able to see physicians within days when actual waits may be months. Dr. Sam Foote, who retired from the Phoenix VA in December, filed complaints with the VA inspector general seeking investigations of alleged medical care failures and administrative misconduct. In a Feb. 2 letter to the inspector general, Miller, Sen. John McCain and Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, Foote said the Phoenix system is afflicted by “gross mismanagement of VA resources and criminal misconduct” that produced “systemic patient safety issues and possible wrongful deaths.” According to Foote, VA IG investigators came to Phoenix late last year and verified allegations he’d made in an October complaint, but no action was taken. In an interview, he said patients “were deliberately being held off the lists” to misrepresent the speed of health services for vets, but it remains unknown how many of the deaths may have been preventable. Foote went on to allege hostile working conditions that caused an exodus of quality doctors and nurses, producing backlogs in both primary care and specialty areas. One example was urology, where resignation of several of the staff urologists forced patients to be referred to out-of-state VA centers or private physicians for treatment. Foote described elaborate techniques that were used to mischaracterize system responsiveness, estimating that up to 30,000 patient charts have been altered. He said thousands of new patients must wait up to a year for assignment to primary-care physicians who are overbooked.

Allegations of falsifying wait times or retaliation against whistle-blowers are nothing new at the VA. A Senate hearing in 2011 found similar falsification of wait times (2). Review of the Office of Inspector General’s website revealed multiple instances of similar findings dating back to at least 2002 (3-6). In each instance, unreliable data regarding wait times was cited and no action was taken.

Fear of retaliation was cited by Foote as a reason for retirement and other employees asked that their names be withheld (1). These fears appear to be realistic. Recently, a VA employee was demoted after providing testimony about financial mismanagement at the Phoenix VA (7). In contrast, it appears that VA administrators have little to fear from whistle blowers, the OIG, or Congress. If recent history is any guide, it seems likely that the delays will be blamed on lazy providers and VA administrators will create another layer of bureaucracy ostensibly to solve the problem. However, the outcome will be further repression of any whistle blowers and depletion of already short patient care resources.

Richard A. Robbins, MD

Editor

Southwest Journal of Pulmonary and Critical Care

References

1. Wagner D. Deaths at Phoenix VA hospital may be tied to delayed care. Available at: http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/2014/04/10/deaths-phoenix-va-hospital-may-tied-delayed-care/7537521/ (accessed 4/10/14).
2. Robbins RA. VA administrators gaming the system. Southwest J Pulm Crit Care 2012;4:149-54.
3. http://www.va.gov/oig/52/reports/2003/VAOIG-02-02129-95.pdf (accessed 4/10/14).
4. http://www.va.gov/oig/54/reports/VAOIG-05-03028-145.pdf (accessed 4/10/14).
5. http://www.va.gov/oig/54/reports/VAOIG-05-03028-145.pdf  (accessed 4/10/14).
6. http://www.va.gov/oig/52/reports/2007/VAOIG-07-00616-199.pdf (accessed 4/10/14).
7. Wagner D. VA official in Arizona demoted after her testimony. Arizona Republic. Available at http://www.azcentral.com/news/arizona/articles/20130314va-official-arizona-pedene-demoted-after-testimony.html (accessed 4/10/14).

Reference as: Robbins RA. Patient deaths blamed on long waits at the Phoenix VA. Southwest J Pulm Crit Care. 2014;8(4):227-8. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13175/swjpcc050-14 PDF